This animation summarizes the waiting times in the first two weeks.
Waiting times from day 1 to day 1 reminder_week1
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Stanford Computation and Cognition Lab
You will predict how long people will have to wait for a bus, in four different scenarios.
You can earn a bonus in each scenario, but the bonus requirements are different across scenarios.
So please pay close attention to whether you have to be fast, accurate, or both.
You will be paid these bonuses after having completed the experiment.
Legal information: By answering the
following questions, you are participating in a study being performed by
cognitive scientists at Stanford University. If you have
questions about this research, please contact Falk Lieder or Noah
Goodman. You must be at least 18 years old to
participate. Your participation in this research is voluntary. You may
decline to answer any or all of the following questions. You may decline
further participation, at any time, without adverse consequences. Your
anonymity is assured; the researchers who have requested your
participation will not receive any personal information about you.
This experiment will present you with four scenarios about bus waiting times. In each scenario, we will first familiarize you with the interface you use to make guesses and the background information for that scenario,
then we will show you when the first bus arrived during the first two weeks.
Then you will see when a person reached the bus stop in the following weeks, and you will predict how long he had to wait.
Scenario 1: Bus #22
Situation
Jacob commutes to work with bus #22.
On average, the first bus departs at 8:01 AM, and the second bus
departs at 8:26 AM but departure times vary.
On some days Jacob misses the first bus and takes the
second bus.
Scoring
There are 100 points that you can win. The longer you take to respond, the fewer points you can win. Specifically, each second you take to answer costs you .
A falling bar will show you how many points are left at any given time.
Please press 'Next' to go through Jacob's most recent experiences
to get a better idea about the variability of the bus departure time.
Day 11
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q30
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q29
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q28
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q27
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q26
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q25
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q24
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q23
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q22
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q21
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q20
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q19
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q18
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q17
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q16
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q15
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q14
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q13
Congratulations! You have completed this scenario earning a bonus of $. In the next scenario your predictions will be scored differently, so watch out for the change!
Time Cost: points/second
Error Cost: points/min. error
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q12
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q11
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q10
Next, you will predict the bus's arrival time on Friday. On Friday, Jacob arrived at the bus stop at AM.
Time Cost: points/second
Error Cost: points/min. error
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q9
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q8
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q1
Next, you will predict the bus's arrival time on Thursday. On Thursday, Jacob arrived at the bus stop at AM.
Time Cost: points/second
Error Cost: points/min. error
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q6
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q5
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q4
Next, you will predict the bus's arrival time on Wednesday. On Wednesday, Jacob arrived at the bus stop at AM.
Time Cost: points/second
Error Cost: points/min. error
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q3
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q2
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q1
Next, you will predict the bus's arrival time on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Jacob arrived at the bus stop at AM.
Time Cost: points/second
Error Cost: points/min. error
Practice making predictions!
Today arrived at the bus stop at AM. I predict that he will board a bus at
number_line_panel_q0
The examples showed you Jacob's waiting times on the first 10 days.
This was the last practice trial. You will now start predicting
Jacob's waiting time on the following days for real.
Before you proceed please answer the following questions!
Is it important to be fast in order to score highly in this scenario?
Is it important to be accurate in order to score highly in this scenario?
Please also answer the following three questions about this image:
First, you will predict how much longer Jacob will be waiting on
Monday of the third week. On Monday, Jacob arrived at the bus stop at AM.
Time Cost: points/second
Error Cost: points/min. error
Week 2
In the second week Jacob arrived at 8:00 AM every day.
Day
Friday:
number line panel #10
Thursday:
number line panel #9
Wednesday:
number line panel #8
Tuesday:
number line panel #7
Monday:
number line panel #6
Week 1
If you study the following examples closely, you will earn more points by guessing more accurately.
Each example is presented as points on a timeline:
the scheduled departure time (i.e. when the bus is supposed to arrived),
and when the first bus actually arrived.
Day
Friday:
number line panel #5
Thursday:
number line panel #4
Wednesday:
number line panel #3
Tuesday:
number line panel #2
Monday:
number line panel #1
Please answer the following questions!
What has happened according to the picture shown below?
How important was it be fast in order to score highly in this scenario? 0: irrelevant, 10: essential
How important was it be accurate in order to score highly in this scenario? 0: irrelevant, 10: essential
How old are you?
The test will present you with 18
cases drawn randomly from the agency's records of deceased customers.
For each case you will be shown the age at which the customer was interviewed for a life insurance, and your task is to predict the age at which the customer died. You will make your predictions by clicking on a number line.
Now that you are familiar with the problem, you can start practicing the task. Please practice several times until you are proficient at it! It will help you to perform better and earn more money.
Trial /18
I predict this person died at an age of ...
You predicted a life span of years.
Tip:
Practice until you are proficient! It pays off.
Short Break
Congratulations, you have successfully completed this part of the experiment!
Before you proceed to the second part, please answer the following questions about yourself!
Question
Answer
How old are you?
years.
How old do you think you will get?
years.
How old do people typically get?
years.
You're finished - thanks for participating!
If your submission is approved you will receive $1.05 plus a bonus of $.
In total the experiment took 100
Submitting to Mechanical Turk...
